“USDINR CMP- 83.03 (spot) Indian Rupee appreciated on Friday as domestic markets has witnessed an early Santa Claus rally and hit fresh record highs. Weak US Dollar and expectations of fresh foreign inflows further supported the domestic currency. Upbeat Chinese industrial production data also extended gains in the Asian markets. US Dollar fell to a five and half month low on US Federal Reserve monetary policy which led to a rally in the global markets. Yesterday, ECB and Bank of England left their interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and 5.5% respectively but maintained a hawkish stance and maintained that. Further tightening may be required as inflation remains high.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on rise in risk appetite in global markets and a soft tone in the US Dollar. Inflows by FIIs may also support Rupee. However, buying of Dollars by RBI to shore up its forex reserves may cap sharp upside. Traders may take cues from Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and PMI data from US. In the domestic markets, traders may take cues from trade deficit data. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.60 to Rs 83.35.”

– Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“WTI front-month futures, currently up nearly 0.50% at $72, closed with a gain of 1.25% at $71.58 yesterday. A weaker Dollar, lower US yields, encouraging US data and a dovish Federal Reserve helped the counter extend its rally to a third consecutive day. The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision signalling pivoting continues to reverberate through the financial markets with markets continuing in ‘buy everything’ mode. The US Dollar Index tumbled even after encouraging retail sales and weekly job data as the ECB and Bank of England kept their rates unchanged and more importantly, did not drop their guards against inflation. The Bank of England’s policymakers suggested that it is premature to anticipate rate cuts. China’s industrial production and retail sales data released today have been somewhat encouraging. The International Energy Agency’s report released yesterday was somewhat supportive for the counter. The IEA said that global oil demand would grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, up slightly from its previous forecast of 930,000 barrels per day; thus, the Agency upgraded its demand outlook for 2024 by 130,000 barrels a day compared with its previous estimate. Crude oil may rise to $75 in the near-term. Support is at $70/$67,” said Praveen Singh – Associate VP, Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“The decrease in Chinese inventories, coupled with expectations of stimulus, has sparked an upsurge in steel prices in China. Although coking coal price has rallied defying market expectations, it is now trading at an unsustainably high price vs historical averages. Indian steel markets witnessed a soft quarter with average prices broadly flat sequentially. Global steel making raw materials continued to rally – coking coal at US$330/t, iron ore at US$120/t driven by worker strikes and higher Chinese production respectively. Spreads of India steel players are likely to be under pressure in 3QFY24 driven by flat realizations and soaring coking coal consumption cost. Consequently, we estimate an EBITDA margin compression of INR1.5k+/ton QoQ. Volume growth is likely to be muted sequentially. Working capital requirements on account of higher coking coal prices and possibly higher steel inventory could negate any chances of net debt reduction. However, recent run up in China prices, sound bites around China stimulus, higher expected consumption in 4Q owing to general elections and recent media articles pointing towards import curb measures by ministry have led to a rally in steel names. While we are yet to see an improvement in spot spreads, any let up in coking coal price amidst price rise in China can help the rally sustain into CY24. JSPL (lowest leverage, highest volume growth over next few years) and Hindalco (Novelis delivering record margins) remain our top picks in the space,” said Ashutosh Somani of JM Financials.

“As per most OEMs, supply constraints continued to ease during the quarter. Although wholesales for major OEMs declined sequentially owing to seasonality and workmen strikes, demand momentum remains healthy. Majority of the OEMs have maintained volume guidance for CY23. Inflationary pressure has softened and companies have guided for better margin outlook during the year. Global Tractor demand remains mixed with positive outlook for large agri equipment and inventory destocking for small agri equipment. Tyre companies indicated of sluggish demand environment and continued inventory destocking in replacement market in the near term. Overall, automakers are maintaining a positive mid-term outlook, focusing on executing healthy order book and move to electrification. We expect revenue/margins of Indian auto companies with higher global exposure like SAMIL / TTMT / SONACOMS to continue to improve/remain steady, ” said Vivek Kumar of JM Financials

Alkem Laboratories appointed Ashish Sehgal to hold senior management position in the company and will be effective from December 15, 2023. The stock gains by 1.88% to Rs 4,948.35 in intra-day trade on Friday.

“Gold and silver experienced a significant surge, buoyed by the unexpected revelations from the Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. Fed indicated that the terminal rate has been reached based on the latest CPI and PPI data. Also, the Fed hinted at the possibility of three rate cuts in 2024. Consequently, the dollar index plummeted, and U.S. 10-year bond yields fell below 4.0%. The U.S. stock market achieved its yearly high, and other riskier asset classes demonstrated resilience. Anticipating continued volatility in today’s session, gold’s support is identified at $2005-2018, with resistance at $2044-2055. Meanwhile, silver is expected to find support at $23.78-23.61, with resistance at $24.22-24.40. In INR, gold’s support is at Rs 62,070-61,810, and resistance is at Rs 62,590-62,710. For silver in INR, support is seen at Rs 74,450-73,880, while resistance stands at Rs 75,650-76,130,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd

Coforge has received an order from GST Authority imposing penalty of ₹10,000 under applicable provisions of Central Goods and Services Act, 2017. The stock rises by 4.72% on the NSE, trading at ₹6,447.35.

Jefferies has maintained its ‘Buy’ recommendation on PI Industries, albeit with a revised target price of Rs 4,120 per share, citing valuation concerns. Despite the adjustment in the target price, Jefferies remains optimistic about the company’s prospects, underscoring key growth drivers and strategies outlined by the innovator.

Also Read: Jefferies Maintains 'Buy' Rating on PI Industries Despite Valuation Concerns, Cuts Target

TCS, HCL Technologies, LTI Mindtree, Inosys, Tech Mahindra are the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index.

“Crude oil prices marked a second consecutive session gain, rebounding from a six-month low on Wednesday. The surge came in the wake of the IEA optimistic demand forecast for 2024, unveiled in its monthly report released on Thursday. According to the IEA, global oil consumption is anticipated to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, reflecting a 130,000-barrel-per-day upward revision from its previous projection. This adjustment is attributed to an improved outlook for the U.S. and lower oil prices. Additionally, the rally in crude oil prices was bolstered by a decline in the dollar index to 19-week lows and a slip in U.S. 10-year bond yields below the 4.0% threshold, following signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating potential rate cuts in 2024. Furthermore, an uptick in risk appetite and the strength observed in global equity markets provided additional support for crude oil prices. Expectations are for crude oil prices to maintain volatility in today’s session. The commodity finds support in the range of $71.50–70.80, with resistance levels identified at $72.90–73.50. In terms of INR, crude oil is anticipated to have support at Rs 5,880–5,810, while resistance is projected at Rs 6,120–6,190,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

The Nifty IT index gains more than 4% in intra-day trade on Friday. The top performing stocks in IT index includes Persistent Systems, Coforge, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Infosys.

Jefferies has shed light on a groundbreaking development that could reshape the insurance industry – the introduction of the “threshold premium” concept. While still in the consultation stage, this innovative idea has the potential to significantly impact insurers by influencing surrender values and, subsequently, trimming fees inversely.

Also Read: Jefferies report unveils potential disruptions in insurance sector with new threshold premium concept

“Yesterday’s run just about met 21220, pencilled in yesterday as the upside objective. Prospects of extension into the 21430-600 region, now rests on the ability to hold above 21160 which may be used as the downside marker for today. Slippage past the same could ask support from 20890, but will also expose 20700. Given how divergences are maturing in different oscillators, our bets are on a turn lower from the top,” Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 21200 for Calls and 21150 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 21000 for Calls and 21000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 21200 for Calls and 21150 for Puts in weekly and at 21300 for Calls and 21150 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 0.68%, increased future index shorts by 4.09% and in index options by 22.78% decrease in Call longs, 8.09% decrease in Call short, 7.27% decrease in Put longs and 13.07% increase in Put shorts,” Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Shares of Texmaco Rail Engineering gains more than 5% in the intra-day trade on the following news that the company has secured an order worth Rs 1,374.41 crores from the Ministry of Railways for the manufacturing and supply of 3,400 BOXNS wagons.

“Slippages were limited yesterday, allowing renewed attempts at breaking 83.4. This puts 83.29-83.4 as the range to break, until inside which moves are likely to be lacklustre,” Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Suzlon wins a large 100MW order from a global utility. Shares gain more than 1% in intra-day trade.

HDFC Life Insuance, Nestle India, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, and Adani port and SEZ are the top losers on NSE Nifty 50 index.

“The Bank Nifty bulls maintained their momentum, successfully surpassing the key resistance level of 47500 with significant trading volumes. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and any temporary declines are considered buying opportunities, with a strong support level identified at 47000. The ongoing momentum is expected to be driven by active participation from both private and PSU banks, propelling the Bank Nifty index towards the 50000 mark” said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative analyst at LKP Securities 

Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Infosys, and UPL are the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index.

Commenting on the Technical outlook of  Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities, said, The index has broken out of consolidation, driven by an increase in long positions compared to short trades among participants. Sentiment remains robust as the index maintains a position comfortably above crucial moving averages. Support is situated at 21,000, where Put writers have significant position. Looking ahead, there’s a potential for the index to advance towards 21,400 and beyond on the higher side.

The NSE Nifty opened at 21,287.45 up or 0.49%. The BSE Sensex gains 0.41% to open at 70,804.14.

WTI crude prices are trading at $71.60 up 0.03%, while Brent crude prices are trading at $76.63 up 0.08%, on Friday morning.

The NSE has added India Cements, Balrampur Chini Mills, Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Hindustan Copper, National Aluminium Company Ltd, and ZEEL  to its F&O ban list for December 14, 2023.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) added shares worth net Rs 3,570.1 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) bought shares worth net Rs 553.2 crore on December 14, 2023, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the green on Friday morning. The Asia Dow is trading up 0.51%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is green, up 0.96%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is trading up 1.07% and the benchmark Chinese index Shanghai Composite is down by 0.33%.

WTI crude prices are trading at $71.60 up 0.03%, while Brent crude prices are trading at $76.63 up 0.08%, on Friday morning.